Yimin Xu

Welcome to YX Insights!

YX Insights brings you ++actionable investing and trading ideas++ in:

• Macro Instruments – including TLT, Fed Funds, Gold, Silver, USO
• Crypto – including BTC, ETH, SOL, COIN and Crypto miners
• Large-cap Equities & Private Credit – Magnificent 7, Financials, Consumer, Business Development Companies (BDCs), Chinese ADRs

We produce both short-term trade setups (4-week to 12 months) and long-term outlooks (1-5 years) for every covered instrument.

We deploy a multi-model approach in our trade idea generation, using tools such as interest rate analysis, liquidity and seasonality analysis, comparable valuations, discounted cash flow modelling, and price technical analysis.

During his time at a global investment bank, Yimin worked as a market maker in short-term interest rates and FX swaps for G10 currencies. He also holds a professional qualification as a Chartered Accountant (equivalent to a CPA in the US). Since 2022, Yimin has been the dedicated commentator for FOMCs on Seeking Alpha News.

Our work is different to the crowd. Our work provides a comprehensive view of financial markets, grounded in a deep knowledge of the macro conditions and interest rate markets.

Asset pricing is heavily influenced by the relative price of money at a particular point in time, which is in turn driven by global liquidity cycles. This is something controlled by the global central banks as well as the forward expectations of the key interest rate markets.

We understand how the macro environment drives the relative performance of financial assets across US bonds, equities, private credit, precious metals, and crypto. We examine every trade thesis through both the macro impact and the individual characteristics of each instrument. This allows us to create consistent returns through multiple macro cycles.

Not understanding how the macro environment and Fed's decision process impact their investment ideas is a major blind spot for many investors and traders. This is one of the reasons that so many investors – from the smallest to the largest – have been wrong-footed by markets in recent years. Trying to understand equities with a narrow focus on earnings, valuations and so forth has led to many missed opportunities.

• Why did Bitcoin rally hard both before and after the US Election? Expanding budget deficit concerns, rising inflation expectations, and loosening global liquidity drove investors towards Bitcoin more than two months before the media caught on.
• Why has Gold climbed to an all-time high? Emerging market central banks' purchases to diversify away from US Dollar dominance, coupled with a surge in global liquidity, have fuelled an extraordinary bull market.
• What caused the stock market shock on Monday 5th August this year? The rapidly tightening 10Y US vs JP Treasury spread squeezed the carry traders on both their returns and funding costs. Could you have known about this ahead of time? You could, if you knew to watch these indicators. In fact, the carry trade is down but not out, as we are watching astutely.
• Why did equities sell off so brutally in 2022? Because the price of money increased at an unprecedented rate, and the Fed liquidity contracted sharply at the same time.
• Why did equities move up in 2023 and 2024? Because improving expectations of the future supply and price of money drove up asset prices and real spending in the real economy.

If you understand macro and rates markets, you have an edge not only in equities, but also precious metals and crypto, simple.

Our focus is on bringing you that edge.

In addition to our actionable ideas, we share with our subscribers extensive in-depth US macroeconomic analysis including key economic data, macro patterns, market liquidity and seasonality, FOMC decisions, and the yield curve.

This analysis is geared toward helping you make better investing decisions. The underlying work may be complex but our presentation is simple, actionable and delivered in a way that any investor can understand.

Since starting the service, YX Insights has guided the community away from superficial media analysis and talking heads, with winning trade ideas that buck the media predictions.

As an Investment Professional, you can subscribe for just:

• Monthly Subscription: $495 per month
• Annual Subscription: $3995 per year (a 33% discount)

Subscribe now and lock in this price forever. Plus, enjoy a 7-day free trial to experience the value of YX Insights risk-free.

Remember the Investment Professional subscription is a site license - you can share the information and ideas you receive here with anyone in your firm.

Subscriber Comments On My Published Work

“Very clear structure and lots of useful information on which to base the Overweight argument. Really like how you translate that into an actionable trading idea, with prices etc.” - August 2024

“Very helpful - really like the lay-out, datapoints and detail given to explain conclusions.” - August 2024

“Well presented, actionable thesis” - August 2024

“I appreciate you sharing your deep knowledge of TLT.” - August 2024

“I really love your reports, crystal clear and dead on accurate, they provide context and rationalization that is spot on.” - June 2024

“Refreshingly sober and rational analysis.” - May 2024

“Thanks for the reasonable, rational note in a sea of generally over-the-top hype or all-out fear-mongering.” - February 2024

“As always, solid logic with some humor. Pay attention to facts and skip the hopium.” - July 2023

“Thank you for revisiting the explanation of T bond issuance, Yimin; it is much easier to understand this version..” - June 2023

“Wow! Illuminating as always. ” - May 2023

“Such an Excellent explanation, thank you. I knew most of this myself but most people haven't a clue as to what this is, all about. It is a great public service to try and educate so many on what this truly is, I applaud you sir!” 22 May 2023

Cestrian Capital Research, Inc - 4 November 2024